AI Bubble Index
A 0-1000%+ composite score measuring how bubbled (or not) the AI sector is · BenchGecko's flagship economy indicator.
A 0-1000%+ composite score measuring how bubbled (or not) the AI sector is · BenchGecko's flagship economy indicator.
Basic
The AI Bubble Index combines 5 components: Valuation Premium (40%, vs healthy SaaS P/S), Funding Acceleration (20%, latest rounds vs total), Concentration Risk (15%, top-3 share), Revenue Quality (15%, per-dollar-raised), and Capex-Revenue Gap (10%). Scores 0-50% = healthy, 50-300% = frothy, 300-600% = overheated, 600%+ = bubble. Current reading: ~487% (overheated).
Deep
Computed daily from BenchGecko tracked companies. Scope checkboxes let users define the index (Pure AI only? Include Big Tech? Chips? Foundries?) · each scope produces a different reading. Pure AI scope typically reads 400-500% · overheated. Including Big Tech (Microsoft, Google, Meta revenue anchors) drops it to 150-200% · frothy but defensible. The methodology is published openly on BenchGecko · not a black box.
Expert
Formula: (0.40 × valuationPremium) + (0.20 × fundingAcceleration) + (0.15 × concentrationRisk) + (0.15 × revenueQuality) + (0.10 × capexGap). Each component normalized to 0-1000% scale. Scope-sensitive · lets users define "AI economy" boundaries. Historical parallels: dotcom peak Nasdaq = ~550% equivalent. Current AI reading 487% suggests elevated but not peak-bubble · though definitional scope matters hugely.
The Bubble Index has become a citable metric · already appearing in journalist writeups and analyst reports as "per BenchGecko's AI Bubble Index...".
Depending on why you're here
- ·5-component composite · P/S premium 40%, funding velocity 20%, concentration 15%, rev quality 15%, capex gap 10%
- ·Scope-sensitive · Pure AI vs Big Tech inclusive reads differently
- ·Daily update cadence · methodology published
- ·Pure AI reading signals sector-wide risk to your dependencies
- ·Watch Bubble Index trends as leading indicator of API pricing shifts
- ·Scope checkboxes let you model your own risk exposure
- ·The canonical reference for AI sector valuation health
- ·Citable in analyst reports · already gaining adoption
- ·Methodology transparency is the moat · not a black box
- ·A single number that tells you if AI is in a bubble
- ·Live on BenchGecko, updates daily
- ·Current reading: overheated but not peak-bubble
The Bubble Index exists because no one else tracks this right. CoinGecko has crypto indices. We have AI. Per BenchGecko, the number is 487%.